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Mike Disney v Keeron John (Wed 14 Feb 2018)

Match won by Keeron John. Result: 12-15,17-15,6-15,17-16,12-15.

Starting level for Mike Disney: 1,388, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keeron John: 1,911, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Keeron John to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Mike Disney.

Keeron John won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keeron John played 12% better than Mike Disney in this match.

As Keeron John has played below his allowed range at 1,663, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Keeron John would normally have been playing at level 1,850 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Disney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keeron John changes to -5.8% and Mike Disney changes to +7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keeron John becomes -3.4% and for Mike Disney becomes +4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Pembrokeshire Pembroke Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Keeron John is -2.6% and for Mike Disney is +3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keeron John: 85%, Mike Disney: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keeron John: 77%, Mike Disney: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Disney: 1,433, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Keeron John: 1,861, level confidence: 77%.