SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Keeron John v Nia Davies (Fri 09 Feb 2018)

Match won by Nia Davies. Result: 6-15,7-15,9-15.

Starting level for Keeron John: 1,960, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Nia Davies: 3,351, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Nia Davies to win as she is currently playing 71% better than Keeron John.

Nia Davies won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nia Davies played 105% better than Keeron John in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nia Davies actually played at a level of 3,665 and Keeron John at a level of 1,792. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 7.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nia Davies changes to +5.6% and Keeron John changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nia Davies becomes +2.8% and for Keeron John becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Pembrokeshire Pembroke Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Nia Davies is +2.1% and for Keeron John is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nia Davies: 91%, Keeron John: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nia Davies: 83%, Keeron John: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keeron John: 1,902, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Nia Davies: 3,416, level confidence: 83%.