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Nick Dyer v Dallas Hayvice (Sat 10 Feb 2018)

Match won by Nick Dyer. Result: 12-10,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Nick Dyer: 5,636, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dallas Hayvice: 4,550, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Dallas Hayvice.

Nick Dyer won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Dyer played 55% better than Dallas Hayvice in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Dyer actually played at a level of 6,298 and Dallas Hayvice at a level of 4,071. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.5% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Dyer changes to +10.3% and Dallas Hayvice changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Dyer becomes +3.7% and for Dallas Hayvice becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Bourse Welsh Masters Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Dyer: 85%, Dallas Hayvice: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Dyer: 76%, Dallas Hayvice: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Dyer: 5,836, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Dallas Hayvice: 4,368, level confidence: 76%.