Nick Dyer v Chris Ashong (Sat 10 Feb 2018)
Match won by Nick Dyer. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-8.
Starting level for
Nick Dyer:
5,478, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Chris Ashong:
3,038, level confidence: 69%.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing
80% better than Chris Ashong.
Nick Dyer won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Dyer played
120% better than Chris Ashong in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Dyer actually played at a level of
6,051 and Chris Ashong at a level of
2,750. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 7.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Dyer changes to +7.7% and Chris Ashong changes to -7.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Dyer becomes +3% and for Chris Ashong becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Bourse Welsh Masters Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Dyer: 80%, Chris Ashong: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Dyer: 73%, Chris Ashong: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Dyer:
5,635, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Chris Ashong:
2,933, level confidence: 75%.