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Nicholas Johnson v Tej Saran Singh (Thu 08 Feb 2018)

Match won by Nicholas Johnson. Result: 11-9,9-11,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for Nicholas Johnson: 5,154, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tej Saran Singh: 6,121, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Tej Saran Singh to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Nicholas Johnson.

Nicholas Johnson won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicholas Johnson played 20% better than Tej Saran Singh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicholas Johnson actually played at a level of 6,159 and Tej Saran Singh at a level of 5,123. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicholas Johnson changes to +18% and Tej Saran Singh changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicholas Johnson becomes +5.8% and for Tej Saran Singh becomes -5.4%.

Given Nicholas Johnson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.7% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tej Saran Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Nicholas Johnson is +4.3% and for Tej Saran Singh is -3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicholas Johnson: 89%, Tej Saran Singh: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicholas Johnson: 74%, Tej Saran Singh: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicholas Johnson: 5,369, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Tej Saran Singh: 5,888, level confidence: 75%.