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Andrew Neal v Kieran Hillman (Thu 08 Feb 2018)

Match won by Andrew Neal. Result: 12-10,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Andrew Neal: 7,326, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kieran Hillman: 5,552, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Andrew Neal to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Kieran Hillman.

Andrew Neal won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Neal played 42% better than Kieran Hillman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Neal actually played at a level of 7,607 and Kieran Hillman at a level of 5,347. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 3.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Neal changes to +3.2% and Kieran Hillman changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Neal becomes +1.6% and for Kieran Hillman becomes -1.8%.

Given Andrew Neal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9% has been applied to his level change.

Given Kieran Hillman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Andrew Neal is +1.1% and for Kieran Hillman is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Neal: 94%, Kieran Hillman: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Neal: 90%, Kieran Hillman: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Neal: 7,398, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Kieran Hillman: 5,471, level confidence: 88%.