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Srikar Mummidi v Greg Tippings (Thu 08 Feb 2018)

Match won by Greg Tippings. Result: 6-11,1-11,1-11.

Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 7,524, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Greg Tippings: 10,267, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Greg Tippings to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Srikar Mummidi.

Greg Tippings won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Tippings played 313% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Tippings actually played at a level of 17,851 and Srikar Mummidi at a level of 4,327. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 74% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 61% and 61% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Tippings changes to +55% and Srikar Mummidi changes to -61%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Tippings becomes +12.4% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes -14%.

Given Greg Tippings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change.

Given Srikar Mummidi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.6% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Greg Tippings is +7.9% and for Srikar Mummidi is -9.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Srikar Mummidi is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Tippings: 87%, Srikar Mummidi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Tippings: 50%, Srikar Mummidi: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 7,155, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Greg Tippings: 11,061, level confidence: 50%.