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Eric Galvez v Blake Reinson (Wed 07 Feb 2018)

Match won by Eric Galvez. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Eric Galvez: 24,327, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Blake Reinson: 11,728, level confidence: 43%.
Eric Galvez to win as he is currently playing 107% better than Blake Reinson.

Eric Galvez won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eric Galvez played 154% better than Blake Reinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eric Galvez actually played at a level of 26,912 and Blake Reinson at a level of 10,602. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eric Galvez changes to +4.1% and Blake Reinson changes to -7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eric Galvez becomes +1.5% and for Blake Reinson becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Canadian Invitational' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eric Galvez: 87%, Blake Reinson: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eric Galvez: 78%, Blake Reinson: 59%.

Final level for Eric Galvez: 24,686, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Blake Reinson: 11,446, level confidence: 59%.