Eric Galvez v Blake Reinson (Wed 07 Feb 2018)
Match won by Eric Galvez. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-4.
Starting level for
Eric Galvez:
24,327, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Blake Reinson:
11,728, level confidence: 43%.
Eric Galvez to win as he is currently playing
107% better than Blake Reinson.
Eric Galvez won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eric Galvez played
154% better than Blake Reinson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eric Galvez actually played at a level of
26,912 and Blake Reinson at a level of
10,602. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 7.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eric Galvez changes to +4.1% and Blake Reinson changes to -7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eric Galvez becomes +1.5% and for Blake Reinson becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Canadian Invitational' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eric Galvez: 87%, Blake Reinson: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eric Galvez: 78%, Blake Reinson: 59%.
Final level for Eric Galvez:
24,686, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Blake Reinson:
11,446, level confidence: 59%.