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Joshua Masters v Adrian Waller (Wed 07 Feb 2018)

Match won by Joshua Masters. Result: 11-9,12-10,11-3.

Starting level for Joshua Masters: 27,523, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 38,158, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Joshua Masters.

Joshua Masters won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Masters played 55% better than Adrian Waller in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Masters actually played at a level of 40,307 and Adrian Waller at a level of 26,056. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Masters changes to +38% and Adrian Waller changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Masters becomes +7.5% and for Adrian Waller becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'UCS Swedish Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joshua Masters is limited to +5.9% and Adrian Waller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Masters: 79%, Adrian Waller: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Masters: 54%, Adrian Waller: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Masters: 29,150, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 36,345, level confidence: 61%.