Tom Richards v Peter Creed (Wed 07 Feb 2018)
Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-8.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
32,591, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
26,434, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Peter Creed.
Tom Richards won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played
83% better than Peter Creed in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of
39,742 and Peter Creed at a level of
21,678. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +18% and Peter Creed changes to -20%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +3.9% and for Peter Creed becomes -4.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'UCS Swedish Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 88%, Peter Creed: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 72%, Peter Creed: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tom Richards:
33,614, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Peter Creed:
25,483, level confidence: 69%.