Mohamed Abouelghar v Eric Galvez (Tue 06 Feb 2018)
Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-6.
Starting level for
Mohamed Abouelghar:
49,709, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Eric Galvez:
24,256, level confidence: 62%.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing
105% better than Eric Galvez.
Mohamed Abouelghar won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played
120% better than Eric Galvez in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of
51,504 and Eric Galvez at a level of
23,411. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 2.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +2.5% and Eric Galvez changes to -2.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +0.9% and for Eric Galvez becomes -1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Canadian Invitational' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 77%, Eric Galvez: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 74%, Eric Galvez: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar:
49,671, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Eric Galvez:
24,237, level confidence: 76%.