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Raphael Kandra v Michael Babra (Tue 06 Feb 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 35,363, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Michael Babra: 9,938, level confidence: 67%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 256% better than Michael Babra.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 106% better than Michael Babra in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,212 and 35,363 without affecting his level.

In this case, Raphael Kandra played at level 22,488 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 24,671 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Babra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to 0% and Michael Babra changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes 0% and for Michael Babra becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'UCS Swedish Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 78%, Michael Babra: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 60%, Michael Babra: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 35,310, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Michael Babra: 10,110, level confidence: 62%.