SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Paul Coll v Nathan Lake (Thu 01 Feb 2018)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 52,495, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 30,533, level confidence: 61%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Nathan Lake.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 136% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 61,466 and Nathan Lake at a level of 26,077. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +11% and Nathan Lake changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +2.5% and for Nathan Lake becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 83%, Nathan Lake: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 71%, Nathan Lake: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 53,440, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 29,867, level confidence: 67%.