Nathan Lake v Ramit Tandon (Wed 31 Jan 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 8-11,11-6,11-8,11-2.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
29,343, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Ramit Tandon:
32,032, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Ramit Tandon to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Nathan Lake.
Nathan Lake won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
34% better than Ramit Tandon in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of
35,471 and Ramit Tandon at a level of
26,498. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +20% and Ramit Tandon changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +4.4% and for Ramit Tandon becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 74%, Ramit Tandon: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 61%, Ramit Tandon: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
30,505, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ramit Tandon:
31,175, level confidence: 75%.