SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Arturo Salazar v Peter Creed (Wed 31 Jan 2018)

Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 13-15,11-7,11-5,10-12,11-4.

Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 33,099, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,181, level confidence: 55%.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Peter Creed.

Arturo Salazar won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played 15% better than Peter Creed in this match.

As Arturo Salazar has played below his allowed range at 30,219, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Arturo Salazar would normally have been playing at level 32,300 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Creed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar changes to -2.5% and Peter Creed changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar becomes -1% and for Peter Creed becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 90%, Peter Creed: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 84%, Peter Creed: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Arturo Salazar: 32,688, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 25,619, level confidence: 69%.