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Ramit Tandon v Mohamed Reda (Tue 30 Jan 2018)

Match won by Ramit Tandon. Result: 11-7,11-7,7-11,5-11,11-9.

Starting level for Ramit Tandon: 32,489, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Reda: 27,137, level confidence: 68%.
Ramit Tandon to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Mohamed Reda.

Ramit Tandon won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramit Tandon played 8% better than Mohamed Reda in this match.

As Ramit Tandon has played below his allowed range at 30,479, his level reduction is 4.5% before damping. On the assumption that Ramit Tandon would normally have been playing at level 32,165 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Reda played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramit Tandon changes to -3.6% and Mohamed Reda changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramit Tandon becomes -1.3% and for Mohamed Reda becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramit Tandon: 88%, Mohamed Reda: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramit Tandon: 83%, Mohamed Reda: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ramit Tandon: 32,055, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mohamed Reda: 27,588, level confidence: 78%.