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Nathan Lake v Edward Mylod (Tue 30 Jan 2018)

Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 29,349, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Edward Mylod: 2,997, level confidence: 23%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 879% better than Edward Mylod.

Nathan Lake won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played 267% better than Edward Mylod in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nathan Lake was taking it easy by anything up to 59%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,995 and 29,349 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nathan Lake played at level 11,535 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nathan Lake would normally have been playing at level 12,108 (based on typical behaviour), Edward Mylod played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to 0% and Edward Mylod changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes 0% and for Edward Mylod becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 89%, Edward Mylod: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 55%, Edward Mylod: 29%.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 29,349, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Edward Mylod: 3,029, level confidence: 29%.