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Peter Creed v Jon Geekie (Tue 30 Jan 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,437, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Jon Geekie: 7,368, level confidence: 47%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 245% better than Jon Geekie.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 52% better than Jon Geekie in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,758 and 25,437 without affecting his level.

As Peter Creed has played below his allowed range at 11,940, his level reduction is 6.9% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 18,015 (based on typical behaviour), Jon Geekie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to -2.5% and Jon Geekie changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes -1% and for Jon Geekie becomes +4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 83%, Jon Geekie: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 55%, Jon Geekie: 46%.

Final level for Peter Creed: 25,181, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Jon Geekie: 7,687, level confidence: 46%.