Steve Williams v Ross Cassley (Thu 08 Feb 2018)
Match won by Ross Cassley. Result: 11-9,12-14,9-11,8-11.
Starting level for
Steve Williams:
4,695, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ross Cassley:
5,249, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Ross Cassley to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Steve Williams.
Ross Cassley won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ross Cassley played
21% better than Steve Williams in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ross Cassley actually played at a level of
5,458 and Steve Williams at a level of
4,515. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ross Cassley changes to +3.8% and Steve Williams changes to -3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ross Cassley becomes +2% and for Steve Williams becomes -2%.
Given Ross Cassley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.1% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Ross Cassley is +1.4% and for Steve Williams is -1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ross Cassley: 87%, Steve Williams: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ross Cassley: 84%, Steve Williams: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Steve Williams:
4,621, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Ross Cassley:
5,317, level confidence: 84%.