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Andy Thirsk v Liam Eason (Thu 08 Feb 2018)

Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 3-11,8-11,10-12.

Starting level for Andy Thirsk: 3,156, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Liam Eason: 9,519, level confidence: 67%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 202% better than Andy Thirsk.

Liam Eason won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played 62% better than Andy Thirsk in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Liam Eason was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,045 and 9,519 without affecting his level.

In this case, Liam Eason played at level 6,056 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Liam Eason would normally have been playing at level 7,179 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Thirsk played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to 0% and Andy Thirsk changes to +8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes 0% and for Andy Thirsk becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Liam Eason is 0% and for Andy Thirsk is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 82%, Andy Thirsk: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 60%, Andy Thirsk: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Thirsk: 3,237, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Liam Eason: 9,505, level confidence: 60%.