SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mike Dickens v David Evans (Thu 08 Feb 2018)

Match won by David Evans. Result: 2-11,2-11,1-11.

Starting level for Mike Dickens: 5,554, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Evans: 21,016, level confidence: 56%.
David Evans to win as he is currently playing 278% better than Mike Dickens.

David Evans won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Evans played 560% better than Mike Dickens in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Evans actually played at a level of 27,756 and Mike Dickens at a level of 4,205. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Evans changes to +15% and Mike Dickens changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Evans becomes +3.8% and for Mike Dickens becomes -4.1%.

Given David Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mike Dickens's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for David Evans is +2% and for Mike Dickens is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Evans: 75%, Mike Dickens: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Evans: 57%, Mike Dickens: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Dickens: 5,386, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for David Evans: 21,407, level confidence: 57%.