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Hari Major v Joe McGoldrick (Tue 06 Feb 2018)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Hari Major: 5,078, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Joe McGoldrick: 2,848, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Hari Major to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Joe McGoldrick.

Hari Major won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 28% better than Joe McGoldrick in this match.

As Hari Major has played below his allowed range at 3,871, his level reduction is 6.4% before damping. On the assumption that Hari Major would normally have been playing at level 4,626 (based on typical behaviour), Joe McGoldrick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 9.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to -4.7% and Joe McGoldrick changes to +7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes -2.3% and for Joe McGoldrick becomes +3.5%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'North East Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Hari Major is -1.7% and for Joe McGoldrick is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 81%, Joe McGoldrick: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 69%, Joe McGoldrick: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hari Major: 4,986, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Joe McGoldrick: 2,918, level confidence: 79%.