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Joel Preece v Sam Weeds (Mon 05 Feb 2018)

Match won by Joel Preece. Result: 11-9,12-10,4-11,11-5.

Starting level for Joel Preece: 5,290, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Sam Weeds: 4,854, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Joel Preece to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Sam Weeds.

Joel Preece won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Preece played 20% better than Sam Weeds in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Preece actually played at a level of 5,541 and Sam Weeds at a level of 4,634. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Preece changes to +4.5% and Sam Weeds changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Preece becomes +2.2% and for Sam Weeds becomes -2%.

Given Joel Preece's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Joel Preece is +1.6% and for Sam Weeds is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Preece: 77%, Sam Weeds: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Preece: 73%, Sam Weeds: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Preece: 5,367, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Sam Weeds: 4,775, level confidence: 81%.