Max Lee v Nathan Lake (Fri 26 Jan 2018)
Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-8.
Starting level for
Max Lee:
40,982, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
29,636, level confidence: 70%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Nathan Lake.
Max Lee won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played
47% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Max Lee actually played at a level of
42,294 and Nathan Lake at a level of
28,717. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to +2.2% and Nathan Lake changes to -2.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes +0.8% and for Nathan Lake becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 93%, Nathan Lake: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 90%, Nathan Lake: 81%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Max Lee:
41,034, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
29,559, level confidence: 81%.