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Nathan Lake v Peter Creed (Thu 25 Jan 2018)

Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 28,370, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,426, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Peter Creed.

Nathan Lake won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played 56% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of 34,246 and Peter Creed at a level of 21,892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +20% and Peter Creed changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +4.4% and for Peter Creed becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 85%, Peter Creed: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 70%, Peter Creed: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 29,432, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 25,439, level confidence: 71%.