SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Joel Makin v Shehab Essam (Thu 25 Jan 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 37,740, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shehab Essam: 26,009, level confidence: 46%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Shehab Essam.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 55% better than Shehab Essam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 38,967 and Shehab Essam at a level of 25,190. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +1.4% and Shehab Essam changes to -2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +0.6% and for Shehab Essam becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 93%, Shehab Essam: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 90%, Shehab Essam: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 37,730, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Shehab Essam: 25,953, level confidence: 66%.