Peter Creed v Faraz Khan (Wed 24 Jan 2018)
Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 10-12,13-11,11-7,11-6.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
26,785, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Faraz Khan:
16,244, level confidence: 47%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing
65% better than Faraz Khan.
Peter Creed won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played
25% better than Faraz Khan in this match.
As Peter Creed has played below his allowed range at 21,710, his level reduction is 6.9% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 24,935 (based on typical behaviour), Faraz Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 8.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to -3.6% and Faraz Khan changes to +8.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes -1.4% and for Faraz Khan becomes +2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 84%, Faraz Khan: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 73%, Faraz Khan: 60%.
Final level for Peter Creed:
26,426, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Faraz Khan:
16,651, level confidence: 60%.