SquashLevels calculations
Peter Creed v George Satler (Tue 23 Jan 2018)
Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-7,11-2,11-1.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
26,744, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
George Satler:
6,029, level confidence: 10%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing
344% better than George Satler.
Peter Creed won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played
230% better than George Satler in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 38%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,260 and 26,744 without affecting his level.
In this case, Peter Creed played at level 19,896 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, George Satler is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 82%, George Satler: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 70%, George Satler: 27%.
Final level for Peter Creed:
26,744, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for George Satler:
6,029, level confidence: 27%.