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Rudi Rohrmüller v Raphael Kandra (Thu 23 Nov 2017)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 1-11,1-11,4-11.

Starting level for Rudi Rohrmüller: 23,063, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 36,324, level confidence: 65%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Rudi Rohrmüller.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 450% better than Rudi Rohrmüller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 67,879 and Rudi Rohrmüller at a level of 12,342. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 87% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 65% and 65% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +65% and Rudi Rohrmüller changes to -57%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +10.9% and for Rudi Rohrmüller becomes -10.7%.

Given Raphael Kandra's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.

Given Rudi Rohrmüller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 17/18' so the adjustment for Raphael Kandra is +5% and for Rudi Rohrmüller is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 81%, Rudi Rohrmüller: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 43%, Rudi Rohrmüller: 45%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rudi Rohrmüller: 22,020, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 38,225, level confidence: 43%.