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Raneem El Welily v Tesni Murphy (Mon 22 Jan 2018)

Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 8-11,11-3,15-13,7-11,12-10.

Starting level for Raneem El Welily: 11,452, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,926, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing 28% better than Tesni Murphy.

Raneem El Welily won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played 10% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.

As Raneem El Welily has played below her allowed range at 10,394, her level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Raneem El Welily would normally have been playing at level 11,220 (based on typical behaviour), Tesni Murphy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to -5.1% and Tesni Murphy changes to +5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes -2% and for Tesni Murphy becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 87%, Tesni Murphy: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 80%, Tesni Murphy: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raneem El Welily: 11,164, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 9,118, level confidence: 82%.