Tesni Murphy v Hania El Hammamy (Sun 21 Jan 2018)
Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-8,13-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
8,752, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Hania El Hammamy:
7,876, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
11% better than Hania El Hammamy.
Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played
35% better than Hania El Hammamy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of
9,643 and Hania El Hammamy at a level of
7,148. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +9.6% and Hania El Hammamy changes to -8.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +3.2% and for Hania El Hammamy becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 86%, Hania El Hammamy: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 78%, Hania El Hammamy: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
8,917, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Hania El Hammamy:
7,679, level confidence: 81%.