Karim Abdel Gawad v Joel Makin (Sun 21 Jan 2018)
Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 10-12,11-4,11-7,11-7.
Starting level for
Karim Abdel Gawad:
50,524, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
37,359, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Joel Makin.
Karim Abdel Gawad won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played
31% better than Joel Makin in this match.
In this case, Karim Abdel Gawad played at level 49,011 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Joel Makin is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to 0% and Joel Makin changes to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 80%, Joel Makin: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 79%, Joel Makin: 88%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad:
50,409, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Joel Makin:
37,509, level confidence: 88%.