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Nicolas Mueller v Adrain Waller (Sun 21 Jan 2018)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 7-11,9-11,11-4,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 35,973, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Adrain Waller: 39,484, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Nicolas Mueller.

Nicolas Mueller won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 15% better than Adrain Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of 40,369 and Adrain Waller at a level of 35,184. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +12% and Adrain Waller changes to -9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +2.8% and for Adrain Waller becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 76%, Adrain Waller: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 68%, Adrain Waller: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 36,881, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Adrain Waller: 38,613, level confidence: 76%.