Adrain Waller v Ramit Tandon (Sat 20 Jan 2018)
Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-3,11-2.
Starting level for
Adrain Waller:
38,852, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Ramit Tandon:
31,738, level confidence: 64%.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Ramit Tandon.
Adrain Waller won 75% of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 90% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played
47% better than Ramit Tandon in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of
42,518 and Ramit Tandon at a level of
29,001. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to +8.5% and Ramit Tandon changes to -8.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +2.2% and for Ramit Tandon becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 79%, Ramit Tandon: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 72%, Ramit Tandon: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrain Waller:
39,484, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ramit Tandon:
31,156, level confidence: 73%.