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Joel Makin v Ben Coleman (Fri 19 Jan 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 3-11,11-5,11-8,13-11.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 37,136, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 26,111, level confidence: 52%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Ben Coleman.

Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 20% better than Ben Coleman in this match.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 32,761, his level reduction is 4.9% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 35,729 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Coleman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -3.2% and Ben Coleman changes to +5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -1.2% and for Ben Coleman becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 81%, Ben Coleman: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 74%, Ben Coleman: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 36,592, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 26,603, level confidence: 66%.