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Lucas Serme v Nathan Lake (Fri 19 Jan 2018)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 36,796, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 28,907, level confidence: 65%.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Nathan Lake.

Lucas Serme won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 55% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of 40,564 and Nathan Lake at a level of 26,222. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +8.1% and Nathan Lake changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +2.1% and for Nathan Lake becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 85%, Nathan Lake: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 77%, Nathan Lake: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 37,389, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 28,359, level confidence: 73%.