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Adrain Waller v Youssef Soliman (Fri 19 Jan 2018)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 37,118, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 29,597, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Youssef Soliman.

Adrain Waller won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 120% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of 49,162 and Youssef Soliman at a level of 22,346. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to +29% and Youssef Soliman changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +5.6% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 83%, Youssef Soliman: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 62%, Youssef Soliman: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 38,852, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 28,356, level confidence: 66%.