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Mazen Hesham v Peter Creed (Fri 19 Jan 2018)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 41,555, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,496, level confidence: 63%.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Peter Creed.

Mazen Hesham won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 106% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of 48,545 and Peter Creed at a level of 23,537. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +12% and Peter Creed changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +2.7% and for Peter Creed becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 86%, Peter Creed: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 73%, Peter Creed: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 42,400, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 26,835, level confidence: 68%.