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Nicholas Johnson v Liam Eason (Thu 25 Jan 2018)

Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 5-11,8-11,9-11.

Starting level for Nicholas Johnson: 5,206, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Liam Eason: 9,607, level confidence: 66%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 85% better than Nicholas Johnson.

Liam Eason won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played 52% better than Nicholas Johnson in this match.

In this case, Liam Eason played at level 8,269 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Liam Eason would normally have been playing at level 8,660 (based on typical behaviour), Nicholas Johnson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to 0% and Nicholas Johnson changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes 0% and for Nicholas Johnson becomes +1.8%.

Given Nicholas Johnson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Liam Eason is 0% and for Nicholas Johnson is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 81%, Nicholas Johnson: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 73%, Nicholas Johnson: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicholas Johnson: 5,267, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Liam Eason: 9,593, level confidence: 73%.