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Srikar Mummidi v David Evans (Thu 25 Jan 2018)

Match won by David Evans. Result: 5-11,4-11,2-11.

Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 7,403, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Evans: 20,999, level confidence: 50%.
David Evans to win as he is currently playing 184% better than Srikar Mummidi.

David Evans won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Evans played 200% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Evans actually played at a level of 21,596 and Srikar Mummidi at a level of 7,199. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Evans changes to +1.7% and Srikar Mummidi changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Evans becomes +0.7% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes -0.6%.

Given David Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Given Srikar Mummidi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for David Evans is +0.4% and for Srikar Mummidi is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Evans: 71%, Srikar Mummidi: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Evans: 69%, Srikar Mummidi: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 7,363, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for David Evans: 21,048, level confidence: 69%.