Mark Blenken v Will Salter (Wed 24 Jan 2018)
Match won by Will Salter. Result: 8-15,10-15,15-10,6-15.
Starting level for
Mark Blenken:
1,433, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Will Salter:
1,952, level confidence: 39%.
Will Salter to win as he is currently playing
36% better than Mark Blenken.
Will Salter won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Salter played
30% better than Mark Blenken in this match.
In this case, Will Salter played at level 1,880 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Will Salter would normally have been playing at level 1,893 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Blenken played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Salter changes to 0% and Mark Blenken changes to +0.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Salter becomes 0% and for Mark Blenken becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Will Salter is 0% and for Mark Blenken is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Salter: 62%, Mark Blenken: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Salter: 61%, Mark Blenken: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Blenken:
1,434, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Will Salter:
1,949, level confidence: 61%.