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Jack Hayes v Hari Major (Tue 23 Jan 2018)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 4-11,11-5,8-11,7-11.

Starting level for Jack Hayes: 3,711, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hari Major: 5,394, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Hari Major to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Jack Hayes.

Hari Major won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 26% better than Jack Hayes in this match.

As Hari Major has played below his allowed range at 4,777, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Hari Major would normally have been playing at level 5,167 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Hayes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to -1.8% and Jack Hayes changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes -1.1% and for Jack Hayes becomes +2.3%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'North East Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Hari Major is -0.8% and for Jack Hayes is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 91%, Jack Hayes: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 84%, Jack Hayes: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Hayes: 3,770, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Hari Major: 5,344, level confidence: 84%.