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Nick Dyer v Peter Berkley (Tue 23 Jan 2018)

Match won by Nick Dyer. Result: 11-8,7-11,11-9,11-13,11-7.

Starting level for Nick Dyer: 5,257, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Peter Berkley: 5,355, level confidence: 61%.
Peter Berkley to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Nick Dyer.

Nick Dyer won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Dyer played 9% better than Peter Berkley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Dyer actually played at a level of 5,541 and Peter Berkley at a level of 5,081. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Dyer changes to +5.4% and Peter Berkley changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Dyer becomes +2.4% and for Peter Berkley becomes -1.8%.

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.1% has been applied to his level change.

Given Peter Berkley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Nick Dyer is +1.8% and for Peter Berkley is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Dyer: 62%, Peter Berkley: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Dyer: 59%, Peter Berkley: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Dyer: 5,343, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Peter Berkley: 5,276, level confidence: 74%.