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Keeron John v Elliot Jones (Tue 23 Jan 2018)

Match won by Keeron John. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-2.

Starting level for Keeron John: 1,850, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Elliot Jones: 2,039, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Elliot Jones to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Keeron John.

Keeron John won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keeron John played 62% better than Elliot Jones in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keeron John actually played at a level of 2,471 and Elliot Jones at a level of 1,526. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keeron John changes to +32% and Elliot Jones changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keeron John becomes +12.8% and for Elliot Jones becomes -8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Keeron John is +9.6% and for Elliot Jones is -5.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Elliot Jones is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keeron John: 71%, Elliot Jones: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keeron John: 53%, Elliot Jones: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keeron John: 2,025, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Elliot Jones: 1,939, level confidence: 66%.