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Hari Major v Jon Davies (Thu 11 Jan 2018)

Match won by Jon Davies. Result: 7-11,8-11,10-12.

Starting level for Hari Major: 5,443, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Jon Davies: 7,380, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Jon Davies to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Hari Major.

Jon Davies won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jon Davies played 42% better than Hari Major in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jon Davies actually played at a level of 7,560 and Hari Major at a level of 5,314. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jon Davies changes to +2% and Hari Major changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jon Davies becomes +1.1% and for Hari Major becomes -1.2%.

Given Jon Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.1% has been applied to his level change.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Jon Davies is +0.7% and for Hari Major is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jon Davies: 84%, Hari Major: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jon Davies: 82%, Hari Major: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hari Major: 5,387, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Jon Davies: 7,424, level confidence: 82%.