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Alex Pendleton v Hari Major (Thu 04 Jan 2018)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 8-11,8-11,12-10,11-7,12-14.

Starting level for Alex Pendleton: 8,145, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Hari Major: 5,063, level confidence: 60%.
Alex Pendleton to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Hari Major.

Hari Major won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 8% better than Alex Pendleton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hari Major actually played at a level of 6,688 and Alex Pendleton at a level of 6,166. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to +22% and Alex Pendleton changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes +6.8% and for Alex Pendleton becomes -6.8%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.

Given Alex Pendleton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Hari Major is +5.1% and for Alex Pendleton is -4.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 78%, Alex Pendleton: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 59%, Alex Pendleton: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Pendleton: 7,787, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Hari Major: 5,314, level confidence: 59%.