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James Peach v David Haley (Thu 18 Jan 2018)

Match won by David Haley. Result: 11-9,2-11,6-11,11-7,6-11.

Starting level for James Peach: 17,043, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for David Haley: 12,517, level confidence: 58%.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 36% better than David Haley.

David Haley won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played 17% better than James Peach in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Haley actually played at a level of 15,767 and James Peach at a level of 13,530. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to +22% and James Peach changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes +5.6% and for James Peach becomes -4.4%.

Given David Haley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for David Haley is +3.4% and for James Peach is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 76%, James Peach: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 60%, James Peach: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Peach: 16,614, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for David Haley: 12,921, level confidence: 60%.