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Liam Eason v Lewys Hurst (Thu 18 Jan 2018)

Match won by Lewys Hurst. Result: 4-11,4-11,11-6,15-13,9-11.

Starting level for Liam Eason: 9,797, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Lewys Hurst: 9,348, level confidence: 58%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Lewys Hurst.

Lewys Hurst won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewys Hurst played 13% better than Liam Eason in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewys Hurst actually played at a level of 10,161 and Liam Eason at a level of 9,013. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst changes to +7.9% and Liam Eason changes to -8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst becomes +2.7% and for Liam Eason becomes -2.9%.

Given Lewys Hurst's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Given Liam Eason's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Lewys Hurst is +1.8% and for Liam Eason is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewys Hurst: 76%, Liam Eason: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewys Hurst: 70%, Liam Eason: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Eason: 9,608, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Lewys Hurst: 9,499, level confidence: 70%.