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Rob Greyling v Keeron John (Thu 18 Jan 2018)

Match won by Rob Greyling. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-1.

Starting level for Rob Greyling: 3,068, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Keeron John: 2,038, level confidence: 58%.
Rob Greyling to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Keeron John.

Rob Greyling won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Greyling played 230% better than Keeron John in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Greyling actually played at a level of 4,542 and Keeron John at a level of 1,376. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Greyling changes to +31% and Keeron John changes to -38%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Greyling becomes +10.7% and for Keeron John becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Rob Greyling is +8% and for Keeron John is -10.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Greyling: 83%, Keeron John: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Greyling: 56%, Keeron John: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Greyling: 3,310, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Keeron John: 1,850, level confidence: 51%.