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Elliott Morris Devred v Nick Dyer (Thu 18 Jan 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 11-0,11-0,11-2.

Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,813, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Nick Dyer: 5,479, level confidence: 58%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 189% better than Nick Dyer.

Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 94% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1000% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 1000% better than Nick Dyer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliott Morris Devred actually played at a level of 30,871 and Nick Dyer at a level of 2,806. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 95% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 48% and 48% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to +48% and Nick Dyer changes to -42%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes +10.1% and for Nick Dyer becomes -12%.

Given Elliott Morris Devred's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred is +5.8% and for Nick Dyer is -8.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 73%, Nick Dyer: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 37%, Nick Dyer: 39%.

A final adjustment of +1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 16,703, level confidence: 37%.
Final level for Nick Dyer: 5,256, level confidence: 39%.